After our project clinic we further developed our scenarios, starting with thinking about the things that would have led to the different population growth possibilities. We also had a meeting with our tutor Taru. We had also sent the first version of our example family to Emma. We met with her again, since she had some good feedback and comments for us about it.
Yesterday we had a long scenario building workshop day with our group. We started with reminding ourselves what was the overall objective of our project: to contribute in Dar es Salaam becoming an integrated and sustainable city. The task of our scenarios will be to help in that decision making by mapping out some of the challenges the city might face in the future.
First we listed different factors that might be relevant for our scenarios. We tried to consider all different point of views: economical, social, demographical, environmental, technological, institutional, and . We roughly ranked these factors according to the impact they might have on the city and their level of uncertainty. The point of this was to find the most important factors that we should address in our scenarios. Because urban planners are usually already taking into consideration the issues that are certain and have a high impact on the city, the task of the scenarios is to map out the various uncertain possibilities and challenges the city might face. So the most important factors for the scenarios are the ones that are uncertain and have a high impact on the city.
Our ranking method, still in the process
We had already decided before to take population growth as a main variable for our scenarios, but after this exercise we are considering about also taking climate change as the other one, since these are both factors that are highly uncertain but at the same time have a very big impact on the city. We think that great climate change effects (heavy rains, draughts, floods, sea level rise) would have a negative effect on the city’s population growth, so we decided to further develop two scenarios: one with a low population growth but major climate change effects, and one with great population growth but very minor or nonexistent effects of climate change. Before we had considered having a third scenario with medium population growth, but came to the conclusion that it would be not interesting to do a scenario where the population growth would continue as expected, since the task of the scenarios is to prepare planners for the unexpected; to “think the unthinkable”.
We are going to take into consideration in both of our scenarios the rest of the different factors we think are uncertain but would have a high impact on the city, such as implementation and formalization rates, among other things.
We further brainstormed on the scenarios, and came up with two sets of overall guidelines that would make Dar es Salaam a sustainable and integrated city in the two different environments.
Our group member Maria was present during the whole meeting via Skype, which was pretty awesome since it was really early in Bogotá! Next monday we are going to deliver the draft version of our report to our tutors, and we are looking forward to hear their feedback.